Rumor: Microsoft or Apple to Buy Netflix

Floating through the blogosphere the other day and I came across a unique story from Silicon Valley Insider about Mahalo founder Jason Calacanis playing in a poker game at the D6 Conference. While the story focuses in on him using Twitter during the game, there was one minor note that caught my attention. Here is what he wrote on his twitter at 2am:

Rumor/prediction at D poker table: netflix to get bought by apple or msft. Thinking is 2m customers to boost online/offline movie service

Normally you could just take this as a bunch of tech guys making some predictions. But the D6 Conference isn’t just some hacks, it includes some of the most prominent executives in the digital game. While there is no knowing who exactly was at the table at the time, we’ll assume it was some people with money and influence. There is a chance that some of them have heard through the grapevine some rumblings. Or perhaps it’s just a savvy prediction.

In any case, the rumor/predictions make a lot of sense. Microsoft would seemingly be the biggest candidate, seeing as they have some cash to burn after the Yahoo! deal fell through. They are entering a battle with Apple and Amazon for the future of the digital market, and Netflix gives them a strong base to start with (over 8 million subscribers).

Their ace in the hole is the XBox 360, a video game device found in millions of homes already. The Netflix offering would be an easy sell on the 360 and wouldn’t force consumers into buying a Netflix-only set-top box. The XBox Live system is already user friendly and implementing a streaming movie interface shouldn’t be too difficult. Members would potentially be able to manage their cue and even sign up directly through their Xbox. This move would also act as a hardware seller and potentially sway people over from purchasing the Playstation 3 from competitor Sony.

In any event, the streaming movie business is the next step forward for the entertainment industry. Microsoft (or Apple) have an opportunity to nab 8 million movie buffs overnight, with the potential to grow it to much more. The purchase would also be a drop in the bucket financially for Microsoft, who was planning to spend a lot more on internet giant Yahoo!. It would make them the frontrunners in the digital movie game and a huge step ahead of their competitors.

Netflix on the other hand is in a tough position. Their mail order rental business has probably come close to peaking. Entering the streaming business is a tough game as they’ll be up against much bigger companies with much better technology (and delivery). They are arguably at their high point right now in their business, and taking a buyout from a major player like Apple or Microsoft would make a ton of sense. It would also give them the financial backing and power to expand their digital library and make improvements to their system.

But, it’s just rumors, and we’re talking about Microsoft. The logical choice is probably the last one in their minds. We’ll keep an eye on any rumors, but we think this would be a good match and wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen by the end of the year.

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